An Early Election Prediction -- and It Ain't What You Think

I may say this louder and stronger in a few weeks — waiting to see what happens post-Labor Day. But for now …

Yarmuth wins. Conway wins. Fischer wins.

Marty Meyer wins.

Dems keep US House and Senate.

Why do I think this? Why do I see these victories for Dems in this horrible atmosphere?

Three reasons:

1. Economy. Just in the past few weeks, I have seen the beginning of hiring, the beginning of purchasing. I think we will see more of it after Labor Day. Not a recovery, Lord no — but signs of recovery.

2. Unions. There are parts of the country where unions can affect elections, and I’m seeing union organizing around the country. I think they are going to turn out, and I think unions will make a difference this election.

3. Dems. We may be the Unorganized Party (Will Rogers), but we can stop fighting with each other when we have to. And from what I can tell, Dems are beginning to take a look at the possibilities of having Mitch as Majority Leader and another impeachment circus in Washington, and they are getting up off their collective butts and getting to work.

And one more thing — in some races, the Republican who could have won has been driven out by a wild-eyed tea partier who hasn’t a chance. Those races are Dem wins where there probably shouldn’t have been one.

And Jake* — if I waited for the KDP, or even the DCCC or the DSCC or the DNC to get off their collective hands/asses/laurels, I’d still be waiting. Howard Dean and the 50-State Strategy isn’t coming through that door. It’s the Lisa Tanners and Jeff Nobles of the world, the Ray Criders and Young Dems of the world, that are going to do the job. We know how to organize, we know how to make calls and walk precincts, and we’re going to do it.

And the headlines on Nov. 3 are going to be:

“How In Hell Did The Republicans Let This Happen?”

*This story was originally a comment I made in response to a story on The Ville Voice about today's polling numbers. Wanted to give attribution to the original source.