Can the Pundits All Be Wrong?
You'd have to be hiding under a rock not to know that today is supposed to be Disaster Day for the Dems. Supposedly there is an "Enthusiasm Gap" between Dems and Repubs, and the Teapocalypse is upon us.
Well -- I've been doing GOTV for the past three days, and from where I sit, there's no gap at all. And if that's true, we may be looking at a "Dewey Beats Truman" moment. Here's why:
Almost every voter I talked to (all registered Dems) were not only planning on voting, they were all voting straight Dem. Many of them were appalled that Rand Paul could soon be Senator Paul (a horrible thought). In fact, Rand Paul may be driving more Dems to vote, just because he is running.
The mood I saw was not the excitement of 2008. The word I would use is "determined" -- more than once I got a "damn right I'm voting!" response. Each person seemed determined to vote, to hold on to the gains and not let the Repubs take it back and mess it up again.
So, what does that mean for our chances?
The polling numbers that we've been seeing have all been based on a screen for Likely Voters. This year, the pollsters have used a LV screen based on a 40% turnout, which is typical for a mid-term election. Within that 40%, they have increased the percentage of Republican voters, based on the supposed Enthusiasm Gap. Using those scenarios, they get the numbers you've seen.
But what happens if we see 50% turnout? Or even higher? And what happens if more of that additional turnout is Democrats coming home? If that happens, a number of races will swing the other way, and instead of a Republican Tsunami, we'll see a small, typical mid-term pickup by the out-of-power party.
So, watch the news reports on turnout throughout the day. And if you're a Republican, don't start your Happy Dance quite yet. You may still have Speaker Pelosi come Wednesday.
Tuesday, November 2, 2010 at 7:33AM
Reader Comments (2)
By the way -- everyone's been pointing at Nate Silver's numbers (of FiveThirtyEight fame) as showing the Republican tidal wave. Nate himself thinks the wave is coming, but he also notes that a 2-3% swing would change the outcome in many, many races. We may be seeing just that swing, in early voting and other indicators.
My 85 year old mother got a ride from her nursing home (a very recent move) to her old polling place to vote today!